Moderate Deviation for the Rightmost Position in a Branching Brownian Motion

We study the moderate deviation probability of the position of the rightmost particle in a branching Brownian motion and obtain its moderate deviation function. Firstly, Chauvin and Rouault studied the large deviation probability for the rightmost position in a branching Brownian motion. Recently, Derrida and Shiconsidered lower deviation for the same model. By contrast, Our main result is more extensive.     

喷流冷却复合陶瓷薄片激光器的热特性仿真分析及实验研究

为分析喷流冷却复合陶瓷薄片激光器的热特性,设计用于冷却复合陶瓷薄片的喷流冷却系统.利用湍流换热理论和计算流体动力学仿真方法建立喷流冷却复合陶瓷薄片激光器的流固耦合热仿真模型,定义评价其冷却能力和冷却均匀性的定量参数.根据该仿真模型得到喷流冷却系统的最优设计参数,并进行实验验证.使用163孔喷板,流量为0.2kg/s,入口温度为20℃,在1200 W泵浦时获得359 W激光输出功率,并测得复合陶瓷薄片上表面的最高温度为92℃.激光输出功率与复合陶瓷薄片上表面温度均与泵浦功率呈近似正线性关系,且温度的实验值与仿真值相符度较高.     

基于时变Copula模型的 基金收益率相依关系的应用研究

基于时变Copula模型,获得预测方差,确定单个基金收益率序列的边缘分布.利用常见的静态Copula和时变Copula模型对基金收益率序列间两两相依关系进行建模并进行对比分析.应用研究表明,基于MCMC方法的时变Copula模型能更有效地度量基金收益率序列的风险.     

Sonoelectrochemical hydrogenation of safrole: A reactor design,statistical analysis and computational fluid dynamic approach

In this work, ultrasound-assisted electrocatalytic hydrogenation (US-ECHSA) of safrole was carried out in water medium, using sacrificial anode of nickel. The ultrasonic irradiation was carried out at frequency of 20 kHz ± 500 Hz with a titanium cylindrical horn (MS 73 microtip; Ti-6AI-4V alloy; 3.0 mm diameter). The optimal conditions were analyzed by statistical experimental design (fractional factorial). The influence of the sonoelectrochemical reactor design was also investigated by using computational fluid dynamics as simulation tool. Among the five parameters studied: catalyst type, use of β-cyclodextrin as inverse phase transfer catalyst, sonoelectrochemical reactor design, ultrasound mode and the temperature of the solution, only the last three were significant. The hydrogenation product, dihydrosafrole, reached 94% yield, depending on the experimental conditions applied. Data of computational fluid dynamics showed that a wing shape tube added to the sonoelectrochemical reactor can work as a cooling apparatus, during the electrochemical process. The reactional solution temperature diminishes 14 °C when compared to the four-way-type reactor. Cooper cathode, absence of β-cyclodextrin, four-way-type reactor, ultrasound continuous mode (14 W) and absence of temperature control were the most effective reaction parameters for the safrole hydrogenation using US-ECHSA method. The proposed approach represents an important contribution for understanding the hydrodynamic behavior of sonoelectrochemical reactors designs and, consequently, for the reducing of the experimental costs inherent to the sonoelectrochemical process.     

Potts models with magnetic field: Arithmetic,geometry, and computation

We give a sheaf theoretic interpretation of Potts models with external magnetic field, in terms of constructible sheaves and their Euler characteristics. We show that the polynomial countability question for the hypersurfaces defined by the vanishing of the partition function is affected by changes in the magnetic field: elementary examples suffice to see non-polynomially countable cases that become polynomially countable after a perturbation of the magnetic field. The same recursive formula for the Grothendieck classes, under edge-doubling operations, holds as in the case without magnetic field, but the closed formulae for specific examples like banana graphs differ in the presence of magnetic field. We give examples of computation of the Euler characteristic with compact support, for the set of real zeros, and find a similar exponential growth with the size of the graph. This can be viewed as a measure of topological and algorithmic complexity. We also consider the computational complexity question for evaluations of the polynomial, and show both tractable and NP-hard examples, using dynamic programming.     

一类改进最大熵方法的可调参数分析

在结构可靠性分析中,引入含可调参数的转换函数能对传统的最大熵方法进行改进,获得更高的失效概率预测精度。但是,此可调参数的最佳取值很难确定。针对这一问题,引入概率守恒方程,从功能函数转换前后所得概率密度函数出发,建立其最大熵值的变化关系,给出转换前后最大熵值之差的理论形式。通过对三种典型单调非线性转换函数开展算例研究,发现功能函数转换前后的最大熵值之差与转换函数的最佳可调参数值有关。改变可调参数值驱使最大熵值之差变化的同时,改进最大熵方法能遍历到更好的失效概率估计值。     

Improving the approximation of the probability density function of random nonautonomous logistic‐type differential equations

In this paper, we address the problem of approximating the probability density function of the following random logistic differential equation: P^′(t,ω)=A(t,ω)(1?P(t,ω))P(t,ω), t∈[t₀,T], P(t₀,ω)=P₀(ω), where ω is any outcome in the sample space Ω. In the recent contribution [Cortés, JC, et al. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simulat 2019; 72: 121–138], the authors imposed conditions on the diffusion coefficient A(t) and on the initial condition P₀ to approximate the density function f₁(p,t) of P(t): A(t) is expressed as a Karhunen–Loève expansion with absolutely continuous random coefficients that have certain growth and are independent of the absolutely continuous random variable P₀, and the density of P₀, , is Lipschitz on (0,1). In this article, we tackle the problem in a different manner, by using probability tools that allow the hypotheses to be less restrictive. We only suppose that A(t) is expanded on L²([t₀,T]×Ω), so that we include other expansions such as random power series. We only require absolute continuity for P₀, so that A(t) may be discrete or singular, due to a modified version of the random variable transformation technique. For , only almost everywhere continuity and boundedness on (0,1) are needed. We construct an approximating sequence of density functions in terms of expectations that tends to f₁(p,t) pointwise. Numerical examples illustrate our theoretical results.     

Birnbaum‐Saunders distribution: A review of models,analysis, and applications

Birnbaum and Saunders introduced a two‐parameter lifetime distribution to model the fatigue life of a metal, subject to cyclic stress. Since then, extensive work has been done on this model providing different interpretations, constructions, generalizations, inferential methods, and extensions to bivariate, multivariate, and matrix‐variate cases. More than 200 papers and one research monograph have already appeared describing all these aspects and developments. In this paper, we provide a detailed review of all these developments and, at the same time, indicate several open problems that could be considered for further research.     

Multistrain edge‐based compartmental model on networks

Multistrain diseases, which are infected through individual contacts, pose severe public health threat nowadays. In this paper, we build competitive and mutative two‐strain edge‐based compartmental models using probability generation function (PGF) and pair approximation (PA). Both of them are ordinary differential equations. Their basic reproduction numbers and final size formulas are explicitly derived. We show that the formula gives a unique positive final epidemic size when the reproduction number is larger than unity. We further consider competitive and mutative multistrain diseases spreading models and compute their basic reproduction numbers. We perform numerical simulations that show some dynamical properties of the competitive and mutative two‐strain models.     

The survival probability of critical and subcritical branching processes in finite state space Markovian environment

Let ${\left(Z_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ be a branching process in a random environment defined by a Markov chain ${\left(X_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ with values in a finite state space $\mathbb{X}$. Let ${\mathbb{P}}_i$ be the probability law generated by the trajectories of ${\left(X_n\right)}_{n\ge 0}$ starting at $X_0=i\in \mathbb{X}.$ We study the asymptotic behaviour of the joint survival probability ${\mathbb{P}}_i\left(Z_n>0,X_n=j\right)$, $j\in \mathbb{X}$ as $n\to +\infty$ in the critical and strongly, intermediate and weakly subcritical cases.